Researchers at the Mayo Clinic have developed a novel tool that estimates a person’s risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease–related memory and thinking decline years before symptoms appear. Drawing on data from the long-running Mayo Clinic Study of Aging, the model integrates factors such as age, sex, APOE ε4 genotype, and brain amyloid levels seen on PET scans. Researchers say the tool could help clinicians and patients take action earlier, potentially slowing or preventing progression.
Alzheimer’s disease is marked by two key proteins in the brain, amyloid and tau. The new prediction model, developed by the Mayo Clinic, combines factors such as age, sex, genetic risk associated with the APOE ε4 genotype, and brain amyloid levels detected on PET scans. The APOE ε4 genotype is a well-established genetic risk factor for Alzheimer’s disease, and its inclusion in the model improves the accuracy of risk predictions.
Using the combined data, researchers can calculate an individual’s likelihood of developing MCI or dementia within 10 years or over the predicted lifetime. Of all the predictors evaluated, the brain amyloid levels detected on PET scans were the predictor with the most significant effect for lifetime risk of both MCI and dementia.
The study revealed that women are at a higher lifetime risk than men of developing dementia and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). MCI is a transitional stage between healthy aging and dementia that can impact quality of life while still allowing individuals to live independently. Both men and women who carry the common genetic variant, APOE ε4, also face an increased lifetime risk of these conditions.
“This kind of risk estimate could eventually help people and their doctors decide when to begin therapy or make lifestyle changes that may delay the onset of symptoms. It’s similar to how cholesterol
